IPO Allotment Chances — the odds, and what actually improves them
Tap a live IPO below to load its real retail subscription, or set your own. Then see why applying for more lots doesn't help — and what does.
4 issues have closed and are waiting on their basis of allotment — they're first in the list.
Live now — tap an IPO to load its real subscription
from NSEAt 20× retail subscription, each application is a lottery entry with about a ~5.0% chance of the minimum lot. Applying for extra lots on the same PAN does not change this — you can still win at most one lot. Add separate PANs (e.g. family members) above to see combined odds.
Estimate only. Subscription figures move until the bidding window shuts, and actual allotment depends on the exact category reservation and valid applications; the registrar decides the final basis of allotment.
PaisaTools Allotment Odds
What the PaisaTools Allotment Odds measure
The chance that one application for the minimum lot gets a lot in the IPO lottery. It is worked out the same way on every PaisaTools page, image and card:
odds = 1 ÷ subscription (times), capped at 100%
- • Which subscription: the retail (RII) book where NSE publishes it. SME issues publish no retail figure, so they use the overall book — and every figure says which book it came from.
- • A conservative floor: it assumes every applicant bids exactly one lot. Many bid more, so there are fewer applications than shares bid ÷ lot size, and your real chance is usually a little better than the figure. It never overstates your odds.
- • Live: recalculated whenever the exchange updates the subscription during bidding, then frozen at the final figure once the issue closes.
- • Not a result: the registrar's basis of allotment is final. Once it is out, check your own status.
| IPO | Book | Subscription | Odds | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fusion CX | Retail | 5.70× | 1 in 5.7 · ~18% | Allotment finalising |
| Ravita Engineering Services | Overall | 6.68× | 1 in 6.7 · ~15% | Allotment finalising |
| HD Fire Protect | Retail | 30.49× | 1 in 30 · ~3.3% | Allotment out |
| Vaibhav Vyapaar | Overall | 3.08× | 1 in 3.1 · ~32% | Allotment finalising |
| Tonbo Imaging India | Retail | 23.03× | 1 in 23 · ~4.3% | Closes today |
| Bonfiglioli Transmissions | Retail | 3.99× | 1 in 4 · ~25% | Closes today |
| Sahajanand Medical Technologies | Retail | 1.81× | 1 in 1.8 · ~55% | Closes today |
| Zetwerk Manufacturing Businesses | Retail | 0.52× | Almost all · ~100% | Closes today |
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Source: PaisaTools Allotment Odds — paisatools.co.in/ipo/allotment-chances
How IPO allotment actually works
When an IPO's retail category is oversubscribed (more demand than the reserved shares), SEBI rules require a computerised lottery. Every applicant who wins gets the same one minimum lot — nobody in retail gets more until everyone who can be given one lot has been considered. So your odds of an allotment are essentially the number of lots available to retail divided by the number of retail applications — which works out to roughly 1 ÷ (retail subscription).
Does applying for more lots increase your chances?
No — and this is the most common mistake. In an oversubscribed retail IPO the lottery gives each winner a single minimum lot. Bidding for 2, 3 or 13 lots on the same PAN does not buy you extra lottery tickets; it only blocks more of your money (up to the ₹2 lakh retail limit) for the same one-lot chance.
What genuinely raises your odds:
- • Separate PANs. Each PAN/demat is an independent lottery entry. Applying from family members' own accounts multiplies your entries — the calculator above shows the combined odds.
- • Apply at the cut-off price. Bidding below the cut-off can invalidate your retail application.
- • Clean UPI/ASBA mandate. Approve the mandate before the cut-off so funds are blocked and the bid is valid.
Odds are a forecast — now check what actually happened
Once the registrar publishes the basis of allotment, the estimate stops mattering and the result takes over. The live IPO tracker carries every issue with its price band, GMP, timeline and a one-tap link into the correct registrar's allotment page — Bigshare, KFin, MUFG Intime, Cameo — so you don't have to work out which one holds your IPO. New to this? Start with how to apply for an IPO.
Check your allotment status →IPO allotment chances — FAQ
How are IPO allotment chances calculated?
In an oversubscribed retail (RII) category, allotment is a computerised lottery for the minimum lot. So your chance of getting a lot from one application is roughly 1 ÷ (retail subscription times). For example, at 20× retail subscription the odds are about 1 in 20 (~5%). If retail is under-subscribed (below 1×), applicants usually get a full allotment.
Does applying for more lots increase IPO allotment chances?
No. In an oversubscribed retail IPO, every winning applicant gets the same minimum lot regardless of how many lots they bid for — the extra lots simply block more of your money without improving your odds. Applying at the cut-off price (not a lower price) is what keeps your application in the lottery.
How can I genuinely improve my IPO allotment odds?
Apply from separate PANs / demat accounts — for example your and family members' accounts — because each PAN is an independent lottery entry, so the chance of at least one allotment rises. Also apply at the cut-off price and ensure funds are blocked correctly via UPI/ASBA before the cut-off.
What is retail (RII) subscription and where do I find it?
Retail Individual Investor (RII) subscription is how many times the retail-reserved shares have been bid for. It's the number that decides retail allotment odds and updates through the bidding window. Each live IPO on PaisaTools shows its retail subscription and an estimated allotment chance.
This estimator is informational, not investment advice. Allotment odds are approximate — the registrar decides the final basis of allotment. IPO investments carry market risk.