Is IPO GMP reliable? How accurate grey-market premium really is
GMP is the number everyone watches — but how well does it actually predict the listing? The honest answer: useful for direction, unreliable as an exact figure. Here's how to read it.
The short answer
Positive GMP → usually a premium listing. Zero/negative → usually flat or weak.
The exact listing gain rarely equals the GMP %. Treat it as scale, not a target.
Unofficial, volatile, thin for small IPOs, and can be talked up.
GMP vs the actual listing gain
The grey market implies a listing price of issue price + GMP. But the real listing price is decided by demand on listing morning, which the grey market can only guess at. In a strong market a hyped IPO can list above its GMP; in a wobbly market the same GMP can fizzle to a flat open. What holds up better is the sign and the rough scale — a big, rising GMP with heavy subscription is a genuinely bullish signal; a fading or zero GMP is a warning.
That's why we show GMP as a % of the price band and are building a live GMP-vs-listing track record — recording each IPO's GMP through the bidding window and comparing it to the actual listing gain, so you can judge GMP by evidence rather than hype.
📊 The PaisaTools GMP Track Record
We log every IPO's grey-market premium during its bidding window, then compare it against the real listing-day result. 35 IPOs tracked since 03-SEP-2026. Nothing is back-filled — an IPO only enters this table if we recorded its GMP before it listed.
What the data says so far: GMP called the direction right 74% of the time, but missed the actual listing gain by ±12.5 percentage points on average — and it was too optimistic in 18 of 35 cases (too pessimistic in 17). In short: useful as a signal of which way an IPO will open, unreliable as a number to bank on.
By board — is SME GMP less reliable?
Both boards appear here once we've tracked listings from each.
| IPO | Board | Listed | GMP implied | Actual | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nityas Gems and Jewellery | Mainboard | 08-OCT-2026 | +4% | +12% | ✅ |
| Vishal Nirmiti | Mainboard | 08-OCT-2026 | +0.9% | -2.3% | ❌ |
| Shah Investor's Home | Mainboard | 06-OCT-2026 | +7.2% | +4.1% | ✅ |
| Srit India | Mainboard | 06-OCT-2026 | +36.9% | +19.3% | ✅ |
| Orient Cables (India) | Mainboard | 05-OCT-2026 | +39.3% | +48.9% | ✅ |
| Runwal Enterprises | Mainboard | 05-OCT-2026 | +0.7% | -0.2% | ❌ |
| German Green Steel and Power | Mainboard | 05-OCT-2026 | +9.4% | -7.7% | ❌ |
| AceVector | Mainboard | 05-OCT-2026 | +3.1% | -18.5% | ❌ |
| A-One Steels India | Mainboard | 01-OCT-2026 | +11.6% | +2.9% | ✅ |
| Moneyview | Mainboard | 01-OCT-2026 | +44.1% | +58.5% | ✅ |
| Adroit Industries (India) | Mainboard | 30-SEP-2026 | +43.3% | +85.4% | ✅ |
| Elevate Campuses | Mainboard | 30-SEP-2026 | +1.9% | -10.8% | ❌ |
| ArMee Infotech | Mainboard | 30-SEP-2026 | +1.6% | -20% | ❌ |
| Swastika Infra | Mainboard | 30-SEP-2026 | +3.8% | +13.5% | ✅ |
| Varmora Granito | Mainboard | 29-SEP-2026 | +0.7% | +2.8% | ✅ |
| Sonaselection India | Mainboard | 24-SEP-2026 | +2% | +8.5% | ✅ |
| Hero Motors | Mainboard | 23-SEP-2026 | +7.1% | +17.1% | ✅ |
| SS Retail | Mainboard | 23-SEP-2026 | +37.7% | +76.6% | ✅ |
| Jindal Supreme (India) | Mainboard | 23-SEP-2026 | +32.3% | +35.5% | ✅ |
| Manika Plastech | Mainboard | 21-SEP-2026 | +2.3% | +0.3% | ✅ |
| Veegaland Developers | Mainboard | 18-SEP-2026 | +3.6% | +4.5% | ✅ |
| Manipal Payment and Identity Solutions | Mainboard | 17-SEP-2026 | +1.2% | +1.8% | ✅ |
| Karamtara Engineering | Mainboard | 17-SEP-2026 | +18.9% | +38.6% | ✅ |
| Rentomojo | Mainboard | 17-SEP-2026 | +21.3% | +32.2% | ✅ |
| Steamhouse India | Mainboard | 17-SEP-2026 | +19.8% | +26.6% | ✅ |
| Asset Reconstruction Company (India) | Mainboard | 17-SEP-2026 | +8.6% | -1.4% | ❌ |
| Glass Wall Systems (India) | Mainboard | 16-SEP-2026 | +22.5% | +18% | ✅ |
| Kanohar Electricals | Mainboard | 16-SEP-2026 | +30.4% | +18.9% | ✅ |
| Prasol Chemicals | Mainboard | 16-SEP-2026 | +5.9% | -0.7% | ❌ |
| Pranav Constructions | Mainboard | 15-SEP-2026 | +40.3% | +6.5% | ✅ |
| Deepa Jewellers | Mainboard | 08-SEP-2026 | +13.6% | +9.8% | ✅ |
| Purple Style Labs | Mainboard | 07-SEP-2026 | +0.3% | -1.1% | ❌ |
| Priority Jewels | Mainboard | 04-SEP-2026 | +14% | +20.8% | ✅ |
| ESDS Software Solution | Mainboard | 04-SEP-2026 | +59.4% | +111.7% | ✅ |
| Lumino Industries | Mainboard | 03-SEP-2026 | +48.8% | +34.5% | ✅ |
Methodology & limitations (read before citing)
- • GMP implied = the last grey-market premium we recorded before listing, as a % of the issue price (upper end of the band).
- • Actual = the real listing-day close vs the issue price.
- • Direction correct means GMP and the actual result had the same sign (both positive, or both negative/flat). It does not mean the size was right.
- • GMP is blended from public grey-market trackers; it is unofficial and moves through the day, so the recorded figure is one snapshot, not a consensus.
- • No back-filling: an IPO enters the table only if we captured its GMP live before listing. Records are written once and never revised.
- • Sample size is 35. The sample grows with every listing.
- • Because most Indian IPOs list at a premium, a high "direction correct" rate partly reflects that base rate — the average gap is the more informative number.
Free to cite with attribution to PaisaTools (paisatools.co.in/ipo/gmp-accuracy). Figures update automatically as new IPOs list. A CSV mirror (CC BY 4.0) is on GitHub, archived on Zenodo with DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23349741. Working paper on the first 35 IPOs: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23356702.
35 listed IPOs, one row each. Read the methodology above before citing -- the sample is still growing.
How to use GMP sensibly
- • Read GMP as a % of the price band, not the raw rupee number.
- • Watch the trend — rising GMP + rising subscription beats a high but falling one.
- • Cross-check with fundamentals and the RHP, not GMP alone.
- • Never apply only because GMP is high — it can vanish before listing.
New to the concept? Read what GMP is and how it's set, then track it live below.
See live IPO GMP (with %) →IPO GMP reliability — FAQ
Is IPO GMP reliable?
GMP is directionally useful but not precise. A strong positive GMP usually means the IPO lists at a premium, and a zero/negative GMP usually means a flat or weak listing — but the exact listing gain rarely matches the GMP percentage. GMP is an unofficial grey-market figure with no official source, it swings through the day, it thins out for smaller issues, and it can be talked up. Treat it as one sentiment signal, not a promise.
How accurate is GMP at predicting the listing price?
GMP is more accurate as a direction (up vs flat vs down) than as an exact number. The implied listing price is issue price + GMP, but the real listing price is set by demand on listing day and often differs — sometimes the listing beats GMP, sometimes it falls short, especially in volatile markets. Use GMP for the sign and rough scale, not a target price.
What is a good GMP for an IPO?
There's no fixed 'good' number — what matters is GMP as a percentage of the price band and whether it's rising or falling. A ₹40 GMP on a ₹80 band (+50%) is far stronger than ₹40 on a ₹800 band (+5%). A rising GMP with heavy subscription is a stronger signal than a high but fading one.
Why does GMP change every day?
GMP is a live grey-market quote driven by sentiment, subscription momentum and overall market mood. It typically builds as the issue opens and demand becomes clear, and it can drop sharply if the broader market falls before listing. That volatility is exactly why a single day's GMP shouldn't be treated as a prediction.
GMP (grey-market premium) is an unofficial, indicative figure blended from public grey-market trackers — not official data and not a prediction. This page is informational, not investment advice.